People around the world are reeling from Republican Donald Trump’s shock victory in the US election.
The big question most are asking now is: what exactly is Trumpism?
The Republican candidate has promised to stand up for America’s “forgotten man and woman,” but what that means in terms of actually policies and actions is a little unclear at the moment. Pretty much all financial analysts are using the word “uncertainty” to describe the state of global politics and financial markets at the moment.
Janet Henry, HSBC’s global chief economist, says in a note this morning: “Huge uncertainty about the future direction of US economic and foreign policy under its new president is already causing big ructions in FX and global stock markets and could feed into business and consumer confidence globally.”
Trump made plenty of promises on the campaign trail but keeping track of them can be a challenge. Societe Generale and Jefferies have produced charts setting out all of his key policy ideas. Here’s the SocGen chart, circulated in a note to clients on Wednesday:
And here’s Jefferies take, also circulated in a note on Wednesday morning:
HSBC’s chief US economist Kevin Logan says in a note also circulated on Wednesday that Trump’s economic policies “would likely put the economy into a recession after a year or two” if fully enacted.
However, he adds: “Whether his proposals will actually be implemented depends on the willingness of Congress to enact legislation to put his proposals into law.”