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The first estimate of US gross domestic product in the third quarter will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Economists forecast that the value of everything the US produced and provided a service for increased by 2.6% on an annualized basis, according to Bloomberg. 

Personal consumption, the key driver of growth, is estimated to slump. A growth rate of 2.6% is forecast, down from 4.3% in the second quarter. Some economists expect this to slow even more if inflation creeps up and eats into real income.

Core personal consumption expenditures, a measure of inflation that tracks prices paid without the volatility of food and energy costs, is estimated to rise by 1.6%.

“In our view, the biggest risk factor for Q3 real GDP growth remains inventories,” said Joseph LaVorgna, the chief US economist at Deutsche Bank, in a note on Thursday. “Given that the level of stockpiles is still elevated relative to the pace of sales throughout most of this year, we expect another drawdown in inventories last quarter.”

Business investment has contracted every quarter since Q4 2015.

More to come …

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