The euro‘s had a rough week.
The currency is down by 0.2% at 1.0874 against the dollar as of 7:26 a.m. ET.
Friday marks the fifth consecutive session that the euro has tumbled, in contrast to last week when it gained four out of five days. It’s down by about 2.4% for the week, and is nearing its lowest levels since January.
Moreover, the currency is down by about 3.6% againsst the British pound — the most since 2009, according to Marc Chandler, the global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.
As for why the currency has stealthily dropped this week, Chandler presents two ideas:
The first is “the political calendar and the forces of national. The second is the widening interest rate differential between the US and Germany,” he wrote in commentary.
The populist movement has been growing in the eurozone, and some analysts argue that Trump’s win “could boost the popularity of anti-immigration and populist parties.” Notably, Europe is fast approaching five key events in its “political calendar,” (you can read about them in greater depth here):
- December 4: Italy holds a crucial constitutional referendum, seen by many as a proxy vote on prime minister Matteo Renzi’s leadership term;
- December 4: Austria will repeat its presidential election, which was almost won by Norbert Hofer, a man nicknamed “Austria’s Donald Trump” in May;
- March 15, 2017: Parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, where the nationalist, right-wing Party for Freedom is gaining ground;
- April-June 2017: French presidential and parliamentary election, which could see big gains for Marine Le Pen and her right-wing, anti-immigration party National Front;
- September 2017: German parliamentary elections.
“The next blow against globalization and integration is seen to come from the eurozone,” Chandler added.
As for the rest of the world, here’s the scoreboard as of 7:41 a.m. ET:
- The British pound is up by 0.7% at 1.2641 against the dollar, hitting its highest level since the “flash crash.” However, the pound is still almost 15% below its pre-referendum high against the dollar.
- The US dollar index is little changed at 98.84 ahead of a light data day. The University of Michigan consumer confidence will be announced at 10 a.m. ET and the Baker Hughes rig count is due out at 1 p.m. ET.
- The Russian ruble is down by 0.4% at 65.7260 per dollar, while Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, is down by 1.2% at $45.27 per barrel.
- The Japanese yen is up 0.5% at 106.28 per dollar.
- The Mexican peso is weaker by 1.3% at 20.8330 per dollar.