- Pfizer dropped as much as 6% on Tuesday after Wall Street analysts knocked its recent deal with Mylan. Pfizer’s off-patent drug business Upjohn will merge with Mylan by the end of 2020.
- Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Merrill Lynch both downgraded the stock from “buy” to “neutral,” citing profitability concerns.
- UBS said it will continue to review the “complicated” merger before changing its “neutral” outlook, but added that it “does not suggest much to be excited about.”
- Watch Pfizer trade live here.
Several Wall Street analysts noted that the company’s decision to merge Upjohn — Pfizer’s off-patent drug business — with Mylan may weaken earnings expectations. The spin-off was announced July 29 after Mylan agreed to the deal in its second-quarter earnings report.
The announcement sent Mylan stock up as much as 19% on Monday, with Pfizer shares slipping about 4%.
Pfizer will continue to include Upjohn in its earnings reports until the deal closes in 2020.
Here’s what three Wall Street firms had to say about what the deal means for Pfizer going forward.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch downgrades to “neutral”
Bank of America Merrill Lynch downgraded the company to “neutral” from “buy” and shifted its price target to $41 per share.
Pfizer’s valuation now depends on its innovation business RemainCo, which sees “dilution worse than expected,” according to a BAML note. The note also said Pfizer’s valuation of Upjohn “comes with a disproportionate loss of profit” for the company.
Now that Pfizer relies on RemainCo for a greater proportion of its revenue stream, BAML is “skeptical” the business can bring enough profitability to justify an overall “buy” rating.
Morgan Stanley downgrades to “equal-weight”
Morgan Stanley downgraded the company to “equal-weight” from “overweight” and moved its price target to $40 from $48.
The merger “exposes lower-than-expected earnings” for both Upjohn and RemainCo, Morgan Stanley analysts said. The bank anticipates 15% lower earnings per share in 2020, citing increased regulatory pressure, lower margins for RemainCo, and weaker Upjohn revenue.
UBS still weighing deal’s impact on Pfizer rating
UBS held a “neutral” rating for Pfizer shares with a price target of $43 before news of the spin-off. The bank continues to review the deal’s specifics and has not yet announced its post-merger outlook.
Pfizer’s split with Upjohn may be two-to-three years too late, as off-patent drug business has only continued to contract, a UBS analyst note said. The deal’s first impression “does not suggest much to be excited about,” the bank added, with weakness expected to continue beyond Tuesday’s stock drop.